Blog: May 17, 2006
North to Alaska

My brother, nine years older than me, graduated from college with an economics degree in 1974. As he neared the end of his college career, I remember reading a research paper he had written regarding shale oil and how it could be extracted. Shale oil is more difficult to extract and refine than crude oil. As a result, shale oil is rarely extracted until the price of extracting crude oil reaches the same costs as extracting shale oil. The point being that even a college student could see that the increasing power of OPEC and the potential for a dramatic shift in the supply and demand of oil made shale oil a viable alternative to crude oil.

M. King Hubbert

Several years later, while I was in high school and experiencing gas lines and rocketing fuel prices (thanks OPEC!), I stumbled across Hubbert’s Pimple in a current events class. While it is an odd moniker (and completely unrelated to my use of Clearasil during those same years), it’s a mathematical proof of M. King Hubbert’s assertion that most of the world’s reserves of oil will be exhausted sometime in the first half of the 21st century. Later, he applied the same principle to other non-renewable natural resources. Hubbert originally presented his theory in 1949, provided mathematical proof in 1956, and his principle is still widely used today. Keep in mind that Hubbert wasn't some left wing crackpot, but was a widely respected geologist with Shell Oil and then spent 12 years with the US Geological Survey.

As one might have expected, American society mocked Hubbert. In the early Atomic Age, we were comfortable with expanding personal wealth and immense world influence. Our chests were puffed up with pride from saving the world for democracy and staring down the Red Menace. Hubbert’s Pimple was an inconvenience simply too distasteful for a country in love with driving big cars on an ever-expanding highway system. Note: For more information about this subject, read Arthur J. Magida’s editorial.

The Alaska Pipeline, the subject of a recent PBS documentary, was started amid great environmental concern in 1974. The promise of an almost inexhaustible supply of oil and a return to cheap gasoline was nearly so tempting that as a nation we were willing to risk our last remaining pristine frontier. While the pipeline was made safe (thanks to roundly vilified environmentalists), a return to cheap gasoline was merely a pipedream. Oh, and then there was the Exxon Valdez...

By now I’m sure you see where I’m going with the history lesson. This country has had the opportunity for over 50 years to examine how and why we consume oil so gluttonously. Why haven’t these questions been answered? Is it lack of imagination? Perhaps the subject is over-shadowed by more pressing needs? Or is it simply a continuation of the comfortable feeling we had way back in the 1950s?

As a nation, isn’t it about time we began to explore alternative sources of energy more thoroughly? While we’re fighting about eminent domain, perhaps we could require that new building as a result of eminent domain uses some alternate energy source. Why haven’t we insisted that automobile builders provide hybrid cars at the same price as their gas-powered twins? Why aren’t all new government buildings required to use some form of solar energy? The list of possibilities goes on forever, yet no one ever devises a comprehensive plan to reduce our dependence on foreign oil...

Frankly, I believe that gridlock is the culprit. The industrial machine that catapulted this country into world dominance is now defined by the oil and auto industries. And these are the very industries that seemingly aren't nimble enough to look at the world economy and make an adjustment. Yet, they are the very companies that seem to have unyielding access to our elected officials. They are the very companies that seem to have unlimited funds for our congressman's reelection campaign.

When Eisenhower warned us about the Military/Industrial complex, he was only partially right. Big Oil is the enemy of freedom and the Auto industry is the gatekeeper. Until these two bend to the new paradigm of the world economy, our nation's future is at risk.

Note: A 1960 movie featuring John Wayne and the title song by Johnny Horton. I couldn't resist the urge to include this movie reference.

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